NASSAU, BAHAMAS — A close monitoring of debt trends and sound public debt management will be key this year and the next few years, according to an Inter-American Development Bank report, which noted that this nation could potentially face difficulties rolling over existing debt if market conditions continue to deteriorate.
The Inter-American Development Bank’s (IDB), in its 2023 second quarter Caribbean bulletin, warned that The Bahamas could face difficulties to roll over existing debt” in the medium-term if market conditions fail to improve.
The report stated: “Although no sovereign external bonds will mature before 2024, between 2026 and 2032, there are bonds maturing every year of at least $250 million. Even though the country is not facing an immediate need to roll over external bonds, within ten years, most of its bonds will mature and in 2029 alone, the amount will reach $550 million.”
It continued: “Amortization of external loans will also exert pressure, since within the next two fiscal years, $899 million will need to be repaid. Domestic debt is also elevated and in FY2023/24 securities amounting to $779 million are maturing. If market conditions continue deteriorating in the medium term, The Bahamas could potentially face difficulties in rolling over existing debt. For these reasons, close monitoring of debt trends and sound public debt management will be key during this and the next couple of years.”
The report noted that both foreign and domestic currency debt as a share of GDP has increased over the previous years, but foreign currency debt increased at a considerably faster pace.
Foreign currency debt accounted for 43 percent of total debt, and most of it is held by the private capital market (25.9 percent of total central government debt excluding contingent liabilities) and international financial institutions (10.2 percent of total central government debt excluding contingent liabilities).
Domestic currency debt is majorly held by commercial banks (20.7 percent of central government debt excluding contingent liabilities) and other institutions (22 percent of total central government debt excluding contingent liabilities).
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