PAHO: Deaths have been increasing in region for months
Forbes: Too early to mark a definitive downward trend
NASSAU, BAHAMAS — While daily coronavirus infections have continued to decline in The Bahamas in the last several weeks, COVID deaths have trended upward during the same period as the country races to increase its vaccination scope while stemming the ongoing surge.
There have been 119 deaths between September 1 and 29 — an average of four deaths per day.
There were 117 deaths reported between August 1 and August 31, an increase of almost two percent when comparing the two months.
There were 3,540 COVID cases recorded between August 1 and 31, compared to the 2,408 cases recorded between September 1 and 29 — a decrease of 31 percent month-over-month — although testing during some recent weeks was down.
It remains unclear whether the increase in deaths can be linked to more aggressive variants of the virus being in-country, namely delta, which has become the predominant variant, according to results from samples tested abroad.
When contacted, Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme Dr Nikkiah Forbes told Eyewitness News that it is too early to mark a definitive downward trend as there are a number of indicators to consider, including the weekly average of cases, testing, the positivity rate, deaths and hospitalizations.
“Sometimes we look at the presentation to hospital and so on, and there is a reason for that because test-taking behavior itself can be biased,” Forbes said.
“There can be things that happen that can impact that.
“For example, if it is a weekend or if there are other activities going on, less people might test and so you have to look at the whole picture.
“…It is promising that hospitalizations are going down.
“That’s important and positive and there could be things that are contributing to that.
“However, we can’t be too premature. We have to look at the epidemic curve as it relates to what’s happening with these cases and the context of testing and other things.
“You’ll see the percent positives are still quite high, much higher than it should be, and that’ll give you an indication of how much COVID, so to speak, is circulating.”
The upward trend in deaths while cases declined is not isolated to The Bahamas.
According to Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Director Dr Carissa Etienne, in the last week in the Americas, 1.5 million cases and 26,000 COVID deaths were reported — more than any other region across the globe.
In an executive summary published on Monday, PAHO said data in July and August showed “substantial increases” in cases in Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada and Saint Lucia — countries with populations between 100,000 and 400,000.
“Related to deaths, it can be observed that they have been increasing for several months with a particular acceleration in July (by 62 percent) and August (62 percent) compared to the previous month,” PAHO said.
In a separate interview with Eyewitness News, Bahamas Nurses Union (BNU) President Amancha Williams expressed concerns about the rate of deaths and said there is a bigger picture as she believes many of those cases have comorbidities.
Previous data has indicated the vast majority of COVID deaths occurred among the unvaccinated, with a large proportion of those cases having at least one comorbidity.
Williams said greater focus must be placed on education and improving the health of the nation.
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