NASSAU, BAHAMASo The Bahamian economy grew close to 3% in 2025 and is expected to remain above its medium-term potential in 2026, Central Bank Governor John Rolle said during the regulator’s quarterly economic briefing.
“Based on the latest available indicators, the Bahamian economy is estimated to have grown at a slightly moderated pace in 2025, when compared to 2024. Growth in tourism earnings supported the outcome, with pricing improvements bolstering otherwise capacity-constrained performance in the stopover market, alongside a sustained, and robust expansion in cruise output,” Governor Rolle said. He added that foreign investment continued to provide stimulus and, combined with tourism, helped boost employment. Expanded domestic lending also supported consumer spending and local investment, while loan default risks further reduced.
For 2025, the economy is projected to have grown at a rate close to 3 percent, after an estimated 3.4 percent rise in 2024, remaining above the medium-term potential of just under 2.0 percent per annum. Rolle noted that stopover tourism was constrained by limited hotel sector capacity and softer U.S. travel demand, but earnings were supported by higher pricing, continued vacation rental growth, and arrivals from non-U.S. visitors, particularly from Canada. The cruise market also maintained strong growth, bolstered by steady investments in private destination facilities.
Official data from the Ministry of Tourism revealed that total visitor arrivals rose by 11.4 percent to 12.5 million visitors in 2025, relative to 2024. Sea arrivals expanded by 13.8 percent to 10.8 million, compared to the prior year. However, air arrivals fell by 1.6 percent to 1.7 million, compared 2024.
On inflation, Rolle said the most recent data available through mid-2025 showed average prices fell marginally, signaling a negative inflation rate, compared with a positive rate in the same period in 2024. “This reflected savings in energy costs and reduced pressures in import prices,” he explained, noting that some uptick in inflation was expected later in the year as U.S. tariff effects passed through.
According to the Central Bank, in the 12 months to July 2025, the inflation was incrementally negative, compared to a positive rate of 1.5 percent in the same period last year. The 2025 period reflected reductions in the average costs for transportation; housing, water, gas, electricity & other fuels; recreation & culture; and restaurants & hotels.
Looking ahead, Rolle said the economy’s growth rate in 2026 is expected to remain above its medium-term potential. “With the U.S. contribution to stopover projected to strengthen, stopover earnings growth could stabilize or improve incrementally, and—along with vibrancy in cruise activity—helped to at least maintain the same rate of gains as was experienced in 2025. Steadied to accelerated credit growth is expected to maintain elevated domestic demand, spending on imports, and limit any potential for a boost to either external reserves or bank liquidity. The Central Bank is fully accommodative of this outcome, given the existing healthy levels of external reserves,” he said.
Rolle also cautioned that, while near- and medium-term risks to financial stability and the currency remain contained, external risks persist, including uncertainties in global trade policy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. “The Central Bank therefore remains vigilant to adjust its policies as necessary to promote desirable outcomes for the financial sector and the economy,” he concluded.
