MIAMI, USA — A broad area of showers and thunderstorms persisted over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday. This activity is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a large upper-level trough.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, little development of this area of disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.
However, environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
Formation chance of a tropical cyclone through five days is estimated to be low (20 percent).