Forbes says CFR rate expected to cont. to decline with expanded testing
NASSAU, BAHAMAS — The Bahamas’ novel coronavirus case fatality rate (CFR) remain three times higher than the global average, despite expanding testing, intended to capture more cases of the virus and provide a truer reflection of its spread.
As of yesterday, there were 96 confirmed cases in The Bahamas.
There have been 11 COVID-19-related deaths, seven of whom had health issues.
According to data, the CFR rate among older people is higher — 14.8 percent among COVID-19 patients over 80, compared to 3.6 percent death rate among patients aged between 60 and 69.
Their ages ranged from 51 to 91.
The last COVID-19-related deaths occurred on April 24.
The Bahamas case fatality rate — the percentage of infected people who have died — stands at 11.9 percent.
The global average was 3.4 percent, though developed countries have reported much higher CFR rates.
A month ago, The Bahamas’ case fatality rate stood at 18 percent.
At the time, there were 29 confirmed cases of the virus and five deaths.
There have been no new cases in five days.
Health officials have predicted expanded testing will see that rate decrease as more people test positive for the virus.
When contacted, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases Programme Director Dr Nikkiah Forbes said: I do think that is because we have done a bit more testing and our capacity to test increased a lot from those earlier days, and so, that means the number of overall cases diagnosed has increased and we still need to expand more testing. So, you’re correct. When this virus first happened in China we knew the average case fatality rate was about 3.4 percent. But know with more than 4 million people [infected], it’s interesting to look at the various experiences countries are having and every country has been different.”
Countries such as Belgium have one of highest case mortality rates — the number of deaths compared to the size of the population.
The country has had nearly 56,000 confirmed cases and just over 9,000 deaths; a CFR rate of 16 percent.
Forbes also pointed to countries in the Caribbean with high CFR rate.
She maintained that wide scale testing in The Bahamas is expected to locate asymptomatic carriers and bring this rate down.
She highlighted that in some countries testing capacity is “being pushed”.
As of April 24, just fewer than 1,000 people had been tested in the country.
As of May 10, 1,626 people had been tested for the virus.
That figure increased toby 118 people over the last week to 1,814.
Anguilla, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia,
St. Vincent and the Grenadines have had varying numbers of COVID-19 cases, but zero deaths.
There have been three COVID-19 cases in Anguilla; 16 in Dominica; 21 in Greneda; 10 in Montserrat; 15 in St. Kitts and Nevis; 18 in St. Lucia where 700 tests have been performed; and 17 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
In countries where testing had reached the several thousands, the CFR rate was considerably lower, though it remains unclear if there is a correlation between testing and the CFR rate in these countries.
The Cayman Islands, which had a CFR rate of 3.5 percent last month, now has a case fatality rate of just over 1 percent.
There have been 93 cases of the virus and one death.
Its testing had reached over 5,300 people by last Thursday.
There have been nine COVID-19-related deaths in Jamaica and 509 confirmed cases, giving the country a CFR rate of just over one percent. Nearly, 8,000 people have been tested.
However, In Antigua and Barbuda, there were 25 confirmed cases and three people have died, resulting in a 12 percent CFR rate. Seventeen people had recovered.
The Virgin Islands have also recorded one death out of its eight cases, placing its CFR rate at 12.5 percent. Only 402 people had been tested as of last Sunday.
Barbados has a CFR rate of eight percent.
There have been 85 cases of the virus in Barbados and seven deaths. Nearly, 3,500 people have been tested.
In Belize, there have been 18 cases and two deaths, giving the country and CFR rate of 11 percent.
All patients had recovered as of last Wednesday.
Cuba has a case fatality rarte of 4.2 percent.
Trinidad and Tobago, which has had 116 confirmed cases, has recorded eight deaths, putting its CFR rate at 6.8 percent.
Additionally, Turks and Caicos has had 12 confirmed cases and one death. This places its CFR rate at 8.3 percent.
Over in Guyana, there were 113 confirmed cases and 10 deaths: a CFR rate of 8.8 percent. Nearly, 1,100 people had been tested for the virus.
As of last Tuesday, Haiti had 234 confirmed cases and 18 deaths. It case fatality rate stood at 7.6 percent. Of the cases, only 17 people had recovered.
Another 1,114 people remain in quarantine.