POOR TRAJECTORY: Sands predicts as many as 1K COVID cases per day based on current models

“It is likely to get worse before it gets better”

Former minister of health attributes COVID spike to unconfirmed presence of delta variant

NASSAU, BAHAMAS — Former Health Minister Dr Duane Sands said yesterday that the current models showing the infection rate for the country suggest there could be as many as 1,000 new COVID-19 cases per day.

Sands, who appeared as a guest on The Hit Back with Nahaja Black, noted that cases and hospitalizations continue to increase dramatically, even though the delta variant has yet to be confirmed in the country.

“The realization is this is happening because of rampant community spread,” Sands said.

Dr Duane Sands.

“There are models that look at confirmed cases and what confirmed cases represent in terms of actual cases and some modeling suggests that the actual number of cases right now could be as much as 1,000 cases a day.

“That is very much what we are experiencing.”

There were 169 new COVID-19 cases confirmed on Sunday, taking the number of cases in the country to 15,794, with 2,500 active and 129 hospitalized.

Health officials also confirmed three additional COVID-19 fatalities — a 40-year-old woman from new Providence, a 43-year-old woman from Abaco and a 59-year-old man from Eleuthera — taking the number of COVID-19 deaths to 307, with another 38 under investigation.

There were also nine COVID-19 deaths confirmed on Saturday, including individuals ranging from the age of 20 years old to 74 years old.

The country recorded the highest number of cases in a single day since the start of the pandemic on Thursday, with 228 cases.

 

Vaccinations and variants

Sands noted that serious illnesses being seen in hospitalized COVID patients are almost exclusively among the unvaccinated.

“The narrative that we ought to be refining is that vaccination isn’t going to stop you from getting infected nor is it going to stop you from transmitting COVID, but it is highly likely to stop you from dying or being hospitalized,” he said.

“What’s bizarre about delta is, delta has taken out people in their 20s, 30s and even children in The Bahamas.”

Although there has not been any official confirmation of the delta variant in The Bahamas to date, Sands said it is highly likely that the variant has been the reason for the stark rise in infections recently, as was seen in Florida and across the globe.

Patient care tents at Princess Margaret Hospital by Samaritan’s Purse to help bolster its capacity, which has been exceeded due to a surge in COVID cases. (BIS)

Delta is here. When you look at hospitals and when you look at the fact that we are scrambling to find nurses, scrambling to find a place to put people, moving to try and find ventilators and high-flow machinery, it is horrible right now.“

He once again suggested the need to tighten restrictions in the country and a need for Bahamians to take personal responsibility in their engagements.

“Where we are right now, we are in a horrible place,” Sands added. “It is likely to get worse before it gets better.”

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