ON THE BRINK: Health experts warn shirking of health protocols prompting COVID increase

Easter weekend activities could bring about a surge without adherence to health protocols

NASSAU, BAHAMAS — Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme Dr Nikkiah Forbes said yesterday that a sustained increase in coronavirus cases that could indicate The Bahamas is “on the brink of a third wave” can be attributed in part to failure to adhere to health protocols in the workplace and other social settings.

“Health experts, we continue to look at the trends,” she told Eyewitness News.

“We look at curves, that graphical model of the number of cases over time, to see if there has been an uptick.

“We did warn some time ago, a few weeks ago, that we were noting there was an uptick in cases.

“That has continued to happen.

“And so, that could mean that you are on the brink of a third wave.

“It is important to recognize that early because if you put in place mitigating steps, you can help to prevent yourself from getting that third wave.”

Asked what was prompting the case increase, Forbes pointed out that COVID spreads among people in close contact with those who have the virus and do not follow health protocols, including wearing a facial mask and gathering indoors or outdoors.

She acknowledged that among the new cases, there were fewer with a history of travel, but said some cases could be indirectly linked to someone who has traveled.

She said: “That is how COVID is spreading. It’s certain risks that we are taking, and people who are at risk are getting it — whether that is travel, travel-related, not following guidelines in the workplace, not following guidelines in our personal lives. It’s as simple as that.”

Forbes, who said other factors could be contributing to the notable increase being observed on several islands, cautioned that continued failure to follow health protocols could push the nation over the brink and into a surge of a third wave.

The Bahamas recorded 15 cases on Sunday — nine on New Providence, one on Grand Bahama, one on Bimini and Cat Cay, two on Eleuthera, one on the Berry Islands and one on Exuma.

Between Friday and Sunday, there were a total of 91 infections recorded.

Eyewitness News revealed on Monday that cases of the virus had increased 15 percent week-on-week.

Between March 19 and March 25, there were 161 new infections.

The week prior, March 11 to 18, there were 139 recorded countrywide.

Hospitalizations also increased from 17 on March 11 to 31 as of Monday.

Of these cases, two remain in the Intensive Care Unit at Doctor’s Hospital.

Roughly half of the hospitalized cases were on Grand Bahama, which has recorded 30 new infections since Friday, compared to New Providence’s 40 cases during the same period.

Of the 9,091 cases, 286 remain active.

Forbes said active cases have to be interpreted correctly and balanced with other indicators to get a true picture of “where you are in-country with the current outbreak”.

“It is very important that you consider the number of new cases being recorded, hospitalizations and the trend in hospitalizations and the trend in deaths,” she said.

“And so, it is also very important to know that the number of cases that are reported are lab confirmed cases — in this case, the RT-PCR. This is always lower than the actual number of cases for many reasons because with this virus, many persons can be asymptomatic and not come forward for testing, so it is good if active cases are declining, but at this current time there has been a sustained uptick in the number of new infections that we haven’t seen for quite some time — at least quite a few weeks.”

She insisted that the public “cannot let down its guard”, noting that a sustained trend of an increase in cases could be an indicator that The Bahamas is at risk of a third wave, which she said is preventable.

Asked how many new daily infections would be an indication of a third wave of the virus, Forbes said a large number of cases over a period of time and an “exponential increase in the number of cases”.

“We don’t want to get to that situation, though,” she said.