Health officials hope to see fewer than 160 cases by mid-May

Health officials hope to see fewer than 160 cases by mid-May

Modeling indicates over 100 cases could be recorded in next 30 days

26 COVID-19 cases avoided over the weekend, result of five-day lockdown

NASSAU, BAHAMAS — The five-day lockdown, which extended over the Easter weekend, netted positive results in slowing the acceleration of COVID-19 cases, according to former Chief Medical Officer Dr Merceline Dahl-Regis.

Cases since late March, increased from five to 28 over a 10-day period.

As of yesterday, there were 54 confirmed cases in The Bahamas — 45 in New Providence, seven in Grand Bahama, one in Bimini and one in Cat Cay.

Dahl-Regis said ahead of the complete lockdown over the Easter holiday, The Bahamas was on track to see a more than doubling of cases to 90.

She said yesterday the country likely avoided 26 additional cases as a result of the restrictions in place over the weekend.

The health consultant in the Office of the Prime Minister acknowledged this could be the in part due to limited testing — something the government hopes to change in the days to come.

She said more cases are expected as testing expands, but it is anticipated to have fewer severe cases.

Modeling for the total number of COVID-19 cases over the next 30 days ranges from just over 100 on the continued slowed acceleration track; over 200 if social distancing is not adhered to, and near 300 cases if there is exponential growth in new cases.

Dahl-Regis said it is hoped that additional “interventions” could slow the rate even further.

Asked for a projected timeline of when the curve could be flattened, Dahl-Regis said: “We’re hoping we can hold the line and we are hoping that we would have an intervention although, we might have more cases when you test more, you identify more cases

“what we are looking at and what we think is critical is we don’t have very sick cases that overwhelm our health facilities and we also identify folks and save lives, and that Is one of the reasons we are targeting elder care groupings as a priority group.

“We are looking at projections everywhere, all over the world. We see that this group is particularly vulnerable, so I’m not able to give you what the projected timetable, but if we’re look at 66 days out — that’s mid-May — if we look at what we might achieve, we truly hope it is less than 160.”