NASSAU, BAHAMAS – The Bahamian economy grew at a moderated pace in January, aligning with its expected medium-term growth potential, while tourism showed healthy but moderated activity, with capacity constraints in the high-value stopover segment, according to the Central Bank.
The regulator, in its Monthly Economic and Financial Developments report for January, also noted that price developments showed a decline in average consumer price inflation, as measured by changes in the Retail Price Index (RPI) for The Bahamas, during the eleven months to November 2024—the latest available data—due to decreased price pressures from imported fuel and other goods and services. On the fiscal side, preliminary data for the second quarter of FY2024/25 revealed that the deficit widened compared to the same quarter in FY2023/24, as the growth in aggregate expenditure exceeded the increase in total revenue. In terms of monetary trends, January saw a reduction in banking sector liquidity, despite domestic credit growth lagging behind the buildup in the deposit base. However, external reserves expanded, supported by net foreign currency inflows from the private sector.
During the review month, external reserves grew by $10.3 million to $2,630.3 million, a notable slowdown from the $381.6 million accumulation in the prior year, which was bolstered by the Government’s net external financing inflows. In the underlying transactions, the Central Bank’s net purchases from commercial banks moderated to $47.5 million, from $86.9 million in the previous year. However, commercial banks’ net inflows from customers slightly expanded to $76.0 million, from $73.5 million the year earlier. Meanwhile, the Bank’s net foreign currency position with the public shifted to a net sale of $38.7 million, from a net purchase of $272.3 million in the preceding year.
Provisional data on foreign currency sales for current account transactions indicated that monthly outflows contracted by $384.3 million to $549.2 million in January, compared to last year. In particular, factor income remittances reduced considerably, by $202.5 million, and payments for other current items—primarily credit and debit transactions—by $111.5 million, relative to January 2024. Similarly, outflows reduced for oil imports, by $60.9 million; transfer payments, by $13.1 million; and travel-related expenses, by $4.4 million. In contrast, non-oil import payments rose by $8.2 million.
Looking back at December 2024 performance, official data provided by the Ministry of Tourism revealed that total visitor arrivals rose by 14.0 percent to 1.2 million visitors in December 2024, compared to 1.0 million in the corresponding period of the previous year. Supporting this outcome, sea passengers increased by 17.0 percent to 1.0 million. Conversely, air traffic fell by 0.9 percent to 0.2 million.
An analysis by major port of entry revealed that total arrivals to New Providence grew by 4.5 percent to 0.5 million, relative to the same period in 2023. Underlying this outturn, sea visitors expanded by 6.8 percent to 0.4 million, outstripping the 2.2 percent falloff in air traffic to 0.1 million. Further, arrivals to the Family Islands expanded by 21.9 percent to 0.6 million, owing to a 23.3 percent growth in sea visitors to 0.5 million and a 3.4 percent rise in air passengers to 33,812. In addition, total arrivals to Grand Bahama grew by 33.3 percent to 70,522, underpinned by a 37.4 percent expansion in sea passengers to 64,609 and a 0.8 percent uptick in air arrivals to 5,913.
On an annual basis, total arrivals grew to a historic 11.2 million in 2024, from 9.7 million in 2023. Leading this outturn, sea passengers expanded by 19.7 percent to 9.5 million. However, air arrivals decreased slightly by 0.2 percent to 1.7 million (see Table 1).
The most recent data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) indicated that total departures—net of domestic passengers—declined by 4.6 percent to 137,974 in January, compared to the same period last year. Specifically, U.S. departures fell by 4.8 percent to 116,773. Likewise, international departures decreased by 3.6 percent to 21,201 compared to the same period in 2024.
In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that total room nights sold rose by 2.3 percent to 50,575 in January 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. Further, the average daily room rates (ADR) for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased by 6.6 percent to $684.86 and by 3.6 percent to $187.24, respectively. However, the occupancy rate for entire place listings fell by 4.4 percentage points to 39.7 percent. Similarly, the occupancy rate for hotel comparable listings declined by 1.1 percentage points, to 41 percent.
