NASSAU, BAHAMAS — The Bahamas has sufficient fuel supplies and consumers should not panic despite looming global price shocks from the escalating Iran conflict, according to Vasco Bastian, vice president of the Bahamas Petroleum Retailers Association, who warned that a surge in crude prices is likely but will not be felt immediately at the pump.
Speaking as fears mount over a potential global oil crisis triggered by attacks in the Middle East and the effective shutdown of the critical Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes — Bastian said The Bahamas buys fuel on forward contracts, insulating the country from instant price shocks.
“You’re not gonna feel the effects of this until the other shipment cycle,” he said. “Oil in The Bahamas and around the world for the most part is bought in the futures market. In other words, we lock in wholesale prices for like two, three-month cycles.”
Global markets are bracing for a sharp rally, with U.S. crude expected to jump as much as 11 percent amid supply fears, shipping disruptions, and attacks on tankers in the region. Analysts warn prolonged closure of the strait could send prices dramatically higher and disrupt energy, agriculture, and food supply chains worldwide.
Bastian said while Bahamians should expect higher prices in the near term, the country’s current inventories mean there is no immediate supply threat.
“To feel the impact immediately — no,” he said. “Should Bahamians be concerned? Definitely because this is gonna be a global crisis right now… but we have enough supply. We could be okay… they don’t need to panic.”
He explained that the timing of price increases will depend on shipping cycles and how quickly newly priced crude enters the regional supply chain.
“This whole thing with war in Iran — you’re gonna feel this not immediately, but sooner rather than later,” Bastian said. “You might be able to get some of that low prices of crude oil, but now the concern will be supply chain… when you see the market open, how the world reacts to that.”
Bastian noted that if shipments already en route were purchased weeks earlier at lower prices, consumers could see a delay before increases filter through to local pumps.
The conflict has rattled shipping in the Gulf, with dozens of tankers reportedly halting transit and insurance costs soaring, raising concerns about longer routes, higher freight costs, and reduced supply availability — factors that typically push prices upward.
“That might cause an increase in the price of crude oil automatically,” Bastian said, noting that disruptions forcing vessels to reroute would add significant transportation costs.
He emphasized that while the situation bears watching, panic buying is unnecessary.
“We should be fine. No need to panic,” he said. “We always buy our oil supply in intervals of six to eight weeks… once the price is locked in at a certain price then we should be okay as well.”
However, Bastian cautioned that a prolonged conflict could pose more serious risks.
“If this drags on for six months, a year — then you need to worry,” he said. “You don’t want it to be like the Russia-Ukraine war… you want whatever these big boys can negotiate and resolve, hopefully sooner rather than later.”
Energy analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, shortages and sustained high prices could follow, potentially pushing oil toward $80 to $100 per barrel.
