NASSAU, BAHAMAS—Bahamas’ external reserves fell by $12.1 million in July, reversing a $76.7 million gain in the same month last year, as net outflows from public sector transactions outweighed private sector inflows. The Central Bank, in its monthly Economic and Financial Developments report, attributed the decline to a net $29.9 million outflow from public sector foreign currency transactions, partially offset by a moderated net purchase of $13.7 million from commercial banks. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ net intake from customers rose to $36.3 million from $11.9 million in the prior year.
Preliminary indications suggest that the domestic economy continued its moderate growth trajectory in July, aligning more closely with expected medium-term potential. Tourism remained a key driver, with cruise arrivals performing strongly, although capacity constraints limited higher-value stopover arrivals. On the fiscal side, preliminary government data for the first eleven months of FY2024/25 show the budget deficit narrowed compared to the same period in FY2023/24, as total revenue growth outpaced the rise in aggregate expenditure.
Tourism sector data for June 2025 highlighted a 10.7 percent increase in total arrivals to 1.0 million visitors compared to June 2024. Sea arrivals rose by 13.8 percent to 0.9 million, while air arrivals fell 3.1 percent to 0.2 million. Total visitors to New Providence climbed 18.7 percent to 0.5 million, supported by a 28.0 percent increase in sea passengers, although air arrivals dropped 3.3 percent to 0.1 million. Family Island arrivals rose 7.2 percent to 0.5 million, led by an 8.4 percent increase in sea traffic, while air arrivals fell 6.0 percent to 35,815. Grand Bahama saw a 31.1 percent decline to 30,257 visitors, mainly due to a 37.8 percent drop in sea arrivals, partially offset by a 25.7 percent rise in air arrivals.
On a year-to-date basis, total visitor arrivals expanded 10.6 percent to 6.3 million, with sea arrivals growing 13.1 percent to 5.4 million, while air arrivals declined 1.3 percent to 1.0 million. Departures data from the Nassau Airport Development Company showed a 2.6 percent drop in outbound traffic to 168,788 in July, with US departures down 4.4 percent to 149,988, partially offset by a 14.7 percent increase in non-US departures to 18,800. Year-to-date outbound traffic fell 2.4 percent to 1.0 million, reflecting a 3.2 percent decline in US departures.
The short-term vacation rental market recorded mixed performance. Data from AirDNA showed total room nights sold in July rose 3.1 percent to 79,615, but occupancy rates declined due to increased inventory. Entire place listings saw occupancy fall to 52.5 percent from 55.0 percent last year, while hotel-comparable listings dropped to 45.6 percent from 49.8 percent. Average daily rates increased, with entire place listings up 12.9 percent to $592.40 and hotel-comparable listings up 4.7 percent to $186.92.
On the inflation front, average consumer price inflation for the 12 months to May 2025 fell relative to the same period in 2024, reflecting lower cost pressures from imported fuel and other goods and services.
In foreign exchange developments, provisional data indicated that July’s current account outflows contracted by $389.8 million to $521.8 million compared with the previous year. Factor income remittances declined by $173.2 million, other current items—primarily credit and debit card transactions—by $98.5 million, non-oil imports by $62.4 million, oil imports by $39.1 million, transfer payments by $10.2 million, and travel-related expenses by $6.5 million.
