NASSAU, BAHAMAS — A tropical wave that has a 90 percent chance of development over the next five days is expected to pass south of The Bahamas as a tropical storm by the weekend, according to Department of Meteorology Senior Deputy Director Jeffrey Simmons.
“Over the next two, three days, that could become a tropical storm and I think, at most, we will probably see a strong tropical storm,” he said yesterday.
“We won’t really see a hurricane out of that.
“If this should develop in the next two to three days, right, then we will develop a track for a tropical storm or hurricane, and it could develop into at least a strong tropical storm.
“We’re looking at it developing into a tropical storm within the next two to three days.”
Most of the modeling shows the weather system moving south of The Bahamas towards Cuba and Jamaica.
As of 2pm yesterday, the tropical wave was located around 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center said the weather system had become more organized in the last 24 hours, but recent satellite wind data indicated the disturbance did not have “a well-defined circulation”.
“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for continued development and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 miles per hour,” the center said.
“Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are likely to be issued later today.”
A second tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles that had a 40 percent chance of development on Tuesday became less organized and is no longer expected to develop further, though heavy rain across the Caribbean Sea was expected as the disturbance moves westward.
Simmons encouraged residents to be prepared, noting storms can occur from May 1 through December 31.
