NASSAU, BAHAMAS — While noting the government’s vaccine program could play a large role in limiting new infections in The Bahamas, former Minister of Health Dr Duane Sands yesterday predicted a possible worst-case scenario of 20,000 confirmed cases, based on existing data.
Shortly after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2020, Sands, then the minister of health, predicted a worst-case scenario of 400 confirmed cases of the virus in The Bahamas and fewer than 100 hospitalizations.
As of Saturday, there were 8,370 cases in The Bahamas, of which 1,132 remain active.
Another 7,006 cases have recovered.
While the current number of hospitalizations stands at 18, the total figure is not represented on the Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 dashboard.
Yesterday, Sands said he never imagined confirmed cases surpassing 400.
“I never in my wildest dreams — at least armed with data that we had, the information we had at the time — did we think that it would get this bad, and yet it has,” he told Eyewitness News.
“And so, there are so many variables now to look at, but certainly we’re going to eclipse 10,000 without a doubt; whether we hit 20,000 or more, it remains to be seen.
“Ultimately, this is a race against time.
“Better treatment, better diagnosis and also vaccination which is both safe and effective will go a very long way to changing a particular country’s experience and a particular country’s caseload.”
According to Sands, developing countries remain at the “back of the line” with accessing vaccines.
The Bahamas is expected to receive 100,000 doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca in two tranches beginning this month.
During the first wave of the virus, which spanned from mid-March 2020 to early July 2020, there were 104 cases and 11 confirmed deaths.
As of Saturday, there were 179 confirmed deaths and 15 deaths under investigation.
Another 38 people who contracted COVID-19 died of other illnesses.
Last week, Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme Dr Nikkiah Forbes said The Bahamas had passed the point of flattening the curve of the second wave.
However, in recent days, new cases per day have jumped from the mid-single-digits and low double-digits to high-double digits.
For example, there were 11 new cases on Saturday; 27 last Friday; 21 last Thursday; and nine last Wednesday.
While it remains to be seen whether this is a trend or isolated few days, there remains concern about new, more contagious strains of the virus impacting The Bahamas and causing a third wave of local transmission.
Yesterday, Sands said there has been a “noticeable uptick” in cases, although the cause is difficult to determine.
“It’s been pretty consistent with the rolling seven-day average,” he said.
“Yesterday, there were 27 cases; I think everybody had to take notice.
“Today, 11 cases. We’ll see what tomorrow holds, but that also came with an increase in hospitalizations.
“…You can never, ever, ever, ever get comfortable with COVID because there [are] so many variables. We don’t know whether any of the variant strains have made their way to The Bahamas.
“And so, until we do know, vigilance remains the order of the day.
“We await the arrival of vaccine in-country for vaccination to become an option, but as I said in my address in the House of Assembly, the issue is mitigation, treatment and vaccination.
“So, there are three separate but important approaches and [we] cannot ever stop doing what we are doing.”
Sands also recommended a review of face masks to determine whether the majority of Bahamians wear appropriate face masks, and wear them properly.
He also suggested it may be time to double down on handwashing, sanitization, face masks with two layers and “possibly even two separate masks worn simultaneously”.
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